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Why not making a LED price guide?

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CompuChron

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Why not making a LED price guide?

Post27 Apr 2007, 00:03

Hi guys,
I thought it could be intersting for the new LED collector and maybe to "settle" the market to try to edit all together a price guide.

We could put all the classic PULSAR , Hamiltons , synchronars....make a category for unbranded watches etc etc

The condition is part of the price obviously , so we'll need at least 3 columns:non working parts watch/good condition/ mint as new in box (manib?)

Let's begin with a goldfilled P3 , what would you say it worth?
80$/250$/500$
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 01:10

I think the problem with a price guide is that the market for LED's is too dynamic and shifting. Prices can change drastically over short periods of time, so a price guide wouldn't be of much use unless ranges were set very wide, in which case it still wouldn't be of much use.
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 05:50

:oops: I actually got a long distance phone call from another collector TODAY,who was appalled that anyone would even suggest this. I too oppose this idea, because this puts the watch that was sold ridiculously cheap or expensive, into the mix as part of the real world average. For instance(as another member mentioned in the thread about "phenomanal catches"), you could log into ebay one morning and find a sold gold P1 that was posted up at a $50 Buy It Now 1 minute before. So, if you buy it immediately, does that mean that the realistic value of a solid gold P1 is then $50? No way -you just got a fantastic deal!! There will be always be good deals where the seller didn't know what they had, there will always be ridiculously high prices paid because two people BOTH want a particular item. Real world collecting takes knowledge and diligence, pitted against how badly you and others want a particular item. IMO, even an unemotional, non-collecting dealer would suffer a bit, as many buyers would approuch items as if they can dicker(negotiate) every piece down to a lower level of quality and price. And having people self-report what they bought, at what price, may not be really accurate....some people really don't understand what a truly Mint as New watch looks like. Also, what would stop a group of dealers from collectively reporting sales at inflated prices, just to drive prices or seeming rarity up?

I think ebay is a good rough guide - a dealer may want more than you consider the "average", but a dealer may be more established and they may be more interested in repeat business,etc. And many people just simply hate ebay, hate PayPal and don't trust the feedback system,etc. Finally, how do we compensate for the very real problem of there being a very large body of collectors in North America, where much of the old stock remains, who don't have the same shipping, duty and pilferage concerns that collectors in some other countries have? A person who is in the same country as the seller can always bid a little higher, since they have lower shipping costs and much greater confidence of receiving the item. :?

Sorry I wrote a freakin book here.....bet this will be hotly debated. :P
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 05:56

Ok, what is a good price for an 18k(solid) P3(Date command, with the solid bracelet and buckel, but bad glass that needs to go?$1500, $2500,$5000?
http://www.retroleds.com - Sales of vintage LED, LCD, analog watches, parts and gadgets - repair tutorials & tips
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 09:30

Azimoth pls site has a rough price guide for watches but that's somewhat out of date - the ranges are also pretty wide ranging so it's a rough guide at best. As Bruce once stated - a watch is worth what someone is willing to pay and that is not necessarily its book value. It may have a sentimental attraction - the same model as one long lost but first bought by a wife in the 70's for example or may be needed to complete a model range. And of course the changing rate of dollar v the pound and euro - at the moment I'd say that Ed's point on postal costs has been negated by the weakness of the dollar and US ebay watches are good value for the moment but that will change and then the non North Americans will be bidding that bit less.

Ed I reckon a good price for your watch is $50 and I'm willing to pay that :D I'll want postage thrown in of course. :P
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: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 10:13

All what you all say about price guides is true but it's true for cars , stamps ,beer cans....
I still think that a price guide for led watches would be a plus for all collectors and especially newbies.
Of course , it won't be perfect but I think it has to be done.
The prices in this virtual guide shouldn't be ebay prices because you can't pay full price for something you don't have in hand and something sold with no returns because "led watches are so sensitive".
I think they should be close to what Ed offer on his site : very honnest in the high range far far away from watchismo for instance.
about 100$-150$ for a nice example of a LED watch.
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Re: re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 12:21

retroleds wrote:Ok, what is a good price for an 18k(solid) P3(Date command, with the solid bracelet and buckel, but bad glass that needs to go?$1500, $2500,$5000?


Dunno, but I'll buy it if you have one for sale :)
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 15:42

I was serious about needing some thoughts on price for a solid 18k gold P3 with terrible glass and needing a full "Detailing"....guy is offering me one, but I am not enough of a Pulsar collector to go out on a limb...he's not biting at $1500.... $2500 would be a bit beyond the value of the gold content(I am actually going to drive a few hundred miles to see it to verify it is solid gold, and hasn't had a bogus back put on). It's not like it is a p1 or an Astronaut.

Good points made on the value of US dollar relative to others. I think I made a good point on duty and customs being a problem for international buys. US citizens don't pay duy, and our packages are rarely opened by customs. Seems like UK customers have it the worse - duty is high and a large percentage of packages get opened(and sometimes, allegedly, pilfered).

Dealers that repair vs. dealers that don't repair. I'll admit that a dealer who repairs may be able to pass on some savings; however, that too is a slightly destructive force on the relative value of items unless we have a bunch of reparing dealers - mainly I see repairing collectors. Since he was mentioned by name, I will say I think Mitch(Watchismo) is a very reputible dealer who has earned his rep. - he hunts down great items and backs them up, and is doing other things to help out the general "Watch world". He doesn't do any/little repair, and he and I keep talking but I have yet to do any for him. It's like the guy who got me started in digitals: if he buys a watch wrong(too high) and then marks my work up 100%, he's priced himself out of the market unless he is really lucky or the person just feels better buying from a brick & mortar store.

Cars are a necessity(need) - they should have consistent pricing. Plus there are numerically a lot more of them out there. Stamps and beer cans? My understanding is that the prices can get just as crazy when it comes down the "the one" that will finish your "set". :lol: :lol: :lol:
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 18:11

To me the real value of a "price guide" is not so much in the values published but in the pictures and text that normally accompanies these values. Paper books of this type are invaluable when trying to identify an object (be it watch, camera, stamp, beercan whatever). You can do something similar on the net (we do have that amazing picture archive on this site) but they just don't have the same feel & ease of use as paper!
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 20:40

Ed - OK serious answer on the value of a solid gold pulsar - wasn't there a solid gold (P2????) one for sale in the UK (on ebay) about 2 months ago. It went up twice on a buy it now for £1500 ($3000) and went eventually for less than that - I can't remember exactly but I think it was about £1200 ($2400) or so. It was one of the Israeli stock of 15ish and it was in just lovely condition with a leather strap.

Customs charges - I personally assume that my package will come through unopened, I'm more concerned about it getting lost in transit than stopped or stolen. If I'm caught - oh well and what does get through means I'm still ahead. If I did then all my bids would be 17 1/2% lower than an ebay price and I'd never win.

Tom - fair points but I still use parkers price guide on the net rather than buy a copy. As the web increases so does usage - and paper falls in usage too.......
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: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 Apr 2007, 21:26

Concerning the solid gold P3 , I don't think the bad glass has a big effect on the price because we all know that is easy to replace and for a solid gold watch it is just a fraction of the price of the whole thing.

Now , I have no idea what would be a fair price , maybe the price you are willing to pay or maybe we should look in the price guide?

Damn , it doesn't exist yet!Too bad...
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post08 May 2007, 23:13

http://www.mediamenteconsulting.net/page9/page15/page16/page16.html

Would one of our Italian forum members be so kind as to decipher how this website came about producing this list?
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post28 May 2007, 22:58

I still like the price guide idea.

Of course you can never say like "A XXXX Pulsar is worth exactly 361,50 $", but i still think we can give directions. If one of our members say it should be like 200 $ and another says its 250 $, then we could label it like "200-250 $". That would give at least basic directions so a noob could say the 550$ "Buy it now" ebay offer isnt too generous.
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Re: re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 02:33

fronzelneekburm wrote:I still like the price guide idea.

Of course you can never say like "A XXXX Pulsar is worth exactly 361,50 $", but i still think we can give directions. If one of our members say it should be like 200 $ and another says its 250 $, then we could label it like "200-250 $". That would give at least basic directions so a noob could say the 550$ "Buy it now" ebay offer isnt too generous.

Is there really a consistent percentage of premium one could expect on a "Buy-It-Now", over an average price?
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 17:51

I'd actually consider most of the "Buy it now" offers above average value (up to rip off prices). "Buy it now" bargains are really, really rare.

The only reason why these "Buy it now" offers still work sometimes is the lack of competition, most LED watches, even if not cconsidered "rare" are still often the "only one" of its kind at one time in ebay, making comparing prices impossible. Also there's no price guide or other documents that could help one with estimating a "reasonable" price. Thus people without years of experience in collecting LED watches often end up in buying that "super rare" watch which is the only one of its kind at ebay, just to discover that one in much better condition was sold for half the dough 3 weeks later.
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: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 18:37

Here is my opinion:
For a good condition watch:
P2:280$
P3:250$
Synchronar:900$
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 20:15

I confess, my question on "Buy-It-Now"(BIN) pricing was a bit rhetorical....I was thinking that it is hard to quantify the difference between a rip-off price and a "this is your once in a lifetime chance to own" price on BIN. :idea: A stainless P2 which often sells between $300-600 depending on condition/box/papars, is pushing reasonable limits at a $1000 BIN; however, despite a solid gold P1 going for around $8k on ebay recently, a seller would not(IMHO) be overpricing at a BIN of $18K, since the odds of another coming up are increasingly rare. Seems we can't escape the market realities of:how bad someone wants it; how long they can wait to be satisfied; and do they have the means to buy their personal piece of "happiness".

I think the prices CompuChron suggested for the Pulsars are skewed downward toward ebay prices vs. real world cost . The majority of ebay sellers claim to know noting about the piece, haven't cleaned it and are selling on an utter "as-is" basis. :lol: How quickly the dead ones bought (and sometimes send to me)are forgotten, along with the dead ones the sellers, both on and off ebay, have had to endure(mentally & financially) to present those nicer pieces to the market. :o

New collectors overpaying is part of any collectible market - without mistakes(myself included :oops: ), who would bother to sharpen their pencil to do better math? :x
Last edited by retroleds on 29 May 2007, 20:19, edited 1 time in total.
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: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 20:19

How much for a stainless steel GP, perfectly mint, with boxes and papers?
A certain site :wink: is offering it for 3000GBP. IMHO this is just about twice its value (and about 4 times more I am willing to pay for any watch :cry: )
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: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 21:23

Ed , you are right , I think I underrated the price of good codition and working watches.
P2 don't often show up on ebay and my last research concering "sold items" showed only 1 in working condition sold for 600 $ (no papers no box) .
What do you think of a range between 400-600 for a nice piece without box and papers until 600-1000 for a boxed P2?
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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post29 May 2007, 21:30

Are people aware of the search function which can be set to show only finished auctions going back 60 (I think) days. This is great as it shows you exactly what went for how much. Of course if it's a genuinely rare piece then you'll be lucky to get one result - which is better than nothing of course :idea:

Yeah rewolf I've seen the GP as well but if I won the lottery I'd buy it - which takes us back to Ed's point...

market realities of:how bad someone wants it; how long they can wait to be satisfied; and do they have the means to buy their personal piece of "happiness".


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re: Why not making a LED price guide?

Post30 May 2007, 01:39

I think a 18K BIN for a P1 would be overpricing and I am not sure it will get sold for that price, at least I'd be surprised if it got sold for that price. The audience for digital watches with pockets that large is very limited. But I would have no Problem if a price guide said "8K to 18K" for a P1, that would be better then nothing and for such exceptional pieces it is normal that some people pay rather realistic cautious prices then a collectors price.

I think ebay prices must not be something to base everything on, ebay can be crazy, we all know that. But i think ebay prices are still "real world" prices, ebay aint no phantasy and it shows what people are willing to usually pay. Just one fool bidding a million doesnt do any influence if all others are willing to pay 10K there. At ebay you need at least 2 fools or 1 BIN. :D

I dont give much about what websites sell their watches for, for vintage watches you can make quite random and overpriced rates, if you got enough patience you always get the one or other customer who is willing to pay 200 bucks for a crappy no name LED watch.

I'd say most website prices for vintage watches are rather reflecting what people would love to earn with a watch, not its real value among collectors. I think of ebay as a quite good indicator in 90% of the cases, but maybe thats just me.

For the guide I think easiest would be easiest if someone made a list of watches to be priced and members post their ideas of the value. I'd do it, but due to business I am not online that frequently lately. Well, just an idea after all.

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