06 Apr 2006, 11:34
We know at least a couple base-metal P1 cases exist, because they showed up on eBay a year or two ago. No one is admitting they have a 14K one, but they might exist [if they didn't go into the melting pot along with most of the 18K ones]. Given the choice, I would never pay more for a 14K; the 18K was the first offered to the world, and will thus always have a special place in history. And I can say, with almost total certainty, that in the coming years, others will surface in the estates of owners who at present have no interest in selling, or have been left sitting in the safe deposit box so long they have been forgotten [How many? At a guess, maybe 12 to 20, over the next ten years or so...]. A parallel is the database available to coin collectors [called the "Condition Census"], that documents the condition of every coin sent to a professional grading service [there are three major ones]. It shows date, denomination, distinguishng marks, and overall condition in a serial-numbered, sealed case. Over the last 25 years, they have cataloged the great majority of high-condition and/or rare coins in the U.S., and firmly established the relative rarity of any given specimen. We have the advantage that our collectible is already serial numbered [except, for some unknown reason, Omega, who never numbered their LED watches, but their production records should still exist], so, in principle, a similar database could be established. Owners could remain anonymous; the important thing would be to document the existence of a particular watch. Eventually, the serial blocks could be estimated, and at least some of the production records re-constructed. In case of theft, the number could be made public, and no stolen watch could be sold on the open market [a great benefit to everybody]. My guess is that most of the big LED collectors have at least some idea of what's tucked away in others' collections, and estimate their values accordingly. Ultimately, though, the price [what's asked], and value [what's paid], will always be subject to the laws of the supply-and -demand market.