FUTURE of LED Watch Values

[collector]

The subject of FUTURE LED watch values has come up in a number of forum threads so I figured I'd start a new thread.

It would be interesting to hear about other members collecting experiences and where they thing the value of LED watches will go.

[retroleds]

Well said collector! I'd agree completely that collector groups move on, never to return...I pray we're not quite there yet. :(

[bruce wegmann]

Like any other collectible, the high-end examples [the first, the rarest, exceptional condition, etc.] will do best in the long run. Emphasis on specific aspects of that collectible may shift around from year to year, but there is always an irreducible "core" of things you must have, if you're going to claim to be a "serious" collector. When I was collecting meteorites, one year, it was achondrites, then carbonaceous chondrites, now it's Mars and Moon rocks [seriously, it is possible now to own bits of the Moon and Mars].
The value of a SS Classic might fluctuate quite a bit, depending on the prevailing degree of collector demand, but I would guess the price of a P1 will continue to be much more stable. The best of anything is always the best retainer of value.

[fronzelneekburm]

I may be wrong but I do not share collectors oppinion. While most normal LEDs are probably not a good "investment" unless bought extemely cheap, they will in 20 or 30 years increase in value I think - of course only the working ones. I think as many of these watches will be broken due to battery leakage or other damages, their count will decrease every year. I think that in 20 years a working LED watch will be worth significant more than today. It also always depends on fashion - as soon as the 70s are "in" again, there will be more demand for these watches.

As I said, just what I think - I may be totally wrong... :wink:

[retroleds]

fronzel is cheering me up! Thanks man!
Watches really are a nice collectible, in that we will[hopefully] alway need to know the time. Just like collectible guns and knives - they still can be used for their original function, in a pinch. Cell phones may have hit new watch sales, but many people have realized that a cell phone is dead in 3-4 days without some juice....even a 70's LED can go 6-18 months on it batteries. And some collectibles don't have their related "support systems" anymore, or you can't get the consumables to use them, even just to show your friends once a year - not much satisfaction in that. IMHO, "pretty & shiny" will be catching the eye for a long time to come. 8)

[embelton]

I?m pretty sure any collector with a bunch of Led?s will make a few bucks in the future.

1.Watchcollectors have money
2.considering the short time in which Led?s were made they have a great chance of becoming even more sought after/important in watchhistory.
3.they appeal to people with taste and people with taste often have money.

its just a thought

[collector]

I know we have beat this subject to death, but below are a few of my latest observations: First, about values over the last couple of years, by several brand's (I do not mean to be all inclusive, just some examples I have watched). Secondly, observations on how many and whom is bidding on led watches now and Third, the impact of "modified" led watches on the marketplace from my perspective.

First: Values
CompuChron's - Stainless Steel models were going for $200+ early last year, now they are down to less than $100, if you can even get that. Same story with the Goldtones.

Wittnauer - two years ago a decent condition Wit would bring $300+ now it seems less than half even make $200 with a lot under $100.

Pulsar Sports - Yes, I know this is possibly a hybrid but it is a very nice watch. Barbie9 was selling these for $450 when he first started - now he is down to $325. The market for these may be saturated but its still a great watch whose value is heading south.

Texas Instrument - the 101 model used to bring $150 plus but now ? $.s All of the rest (with the exception of the Wells just auctioned) seem to be heading south.

Bulova - All models seem to be down over the last couple of years. even the Sideviews have come down.

Novus - with the exception of a few rare examples, most seem to be heading south over the last couple of years.

Hamiltons - most (again depending on model) seem to be heading south)

Pulsar (other than the sport) seem to be keeping their value or increasing.

Omega - heading up

[b]Has anyone kept a spread sheet of all eBay LED sales over the last few years (I wish I did). If so, would they be willing to share it. The actual data would / should be most interesting.[/b]

Second: # of new / regular Collector's
From what I see, with the exception of one member of this forum, there does not seem to be any set of regular bidders who are regularly going after watches. Another member of this forum (heavy contributer) has a few items up for bid, in one of the item descriptions he says the reason he is selling the led watch is that he is going to stop collecting. In several auctions by others, I have seen something like the following " Moving on, selling off, etc. Another member of this forum who regularly sells is (in my opinion) not realizing anywhere near what he should be getting in the way of $'s for some beautiful watches. As I said before, I personally stopped collecting any more LEDs, sold most and only have a few "stars" left. I have moved onto other types of watches.

Last: Impact of Modified watches:
I realize all watches (regardless of type) can be fixed and should be. But in my opinion, they only should be fixed with like stock not modified in every which way possible (some sneaky and intended to mislead buyers). I myself was trapped by a couple of modifications, even though I did ask the "right" questions prior to buying. This "modification" wave is yet another reason I have stopped collecting "vintage" LED's. I will spend my dollars on new LCD's like the Junghans, new "Atomic" and hopefully the new Time Computer watch when it arrives. At least I am assured my $'s are going to the "Real" thing not a modification!! From what I know about collecting in general (not only watches) those with the $'s will keep collecting but only for the real / quality stuff.

Enough rambling for now.............. Let the input from others start!!!!

[retroleds]

Alternate theory: some people who are able to invest in LED watches for personal enjoyment and as an income producing activity,see the current times as being part of a slow moving wave of dimishing parts availability, which leave the remaining, functional LED watches an increasingly valuable collectable,despite a possibly diminishing collector group. Lit numbers seems to be an excellent human/timepiece interface, and other types of nonessential jewelry has been worn by humans for hundreds of years. Don't worry - be happy! 8)

[collector]

Little1 up,

Have no disagreement with your logic. If one has the means / knowledge to make a business go, it probably is a good long term idea / strategy. However, for the casual collector who wishes to semi-maintain the value of their collection, it is a risk to collect anything but the very prime examples. I personally have kept what are "prime examples" as well as "examples" that are of great personal appeal to me but of probable no interest to others. Obviously, if you very much like something, the current value / future value should not be of consideration.

[retroleds]

Exactly collector - justifying cost is personal!
Some people collect little pieces of paper each week hoping to become a millionaire ,
some people golf ,
some people collect shoes ,
some people fish 8)
life's just too darn short....... time for a Visa commercial
:wink:

[Majestyk]

Well I have to agree on the pricing that "collector" has stated. When I first came on the LED scene almost 5 years ago, I was a buyer only. I remember "led-land", who I bought some watches from, rarely ever sold Pulsar/Hamilton/Omega watches. He sold Compuchrons, Novus, Wittnauer, etc. Basically all the "mid" range watches. He was getting $200 to $400 and sometimes more for them. Now he's lucky to get more than $125. He could get over $200 for no names and won't get more than $75 now. This is why he went to Pulsar's only (pretty much).

Anyway, I will say that Wells/TI watch I had for auction should have got more interest. I got good money for it and it went to a happy home but it seems like only 2 people were really keen on owning it. That watch belongs in a freak'n museum if you ask me. :)

MJ

[retroleds]

I took a look at ebay listings for recent,complete sales - the last 15 days is what their advanced search gives you. Seemed to me the "plain jane" round faces watches were pathetically low; albiet, they are good buys if they contain a working module and you repair - just pull the "engine" and trash the body. Run of the mill Pulsars,especially those that were less than mint took a beating, while high-end mint/NOS show some decent appreciatation,IMO. Especially the calculators. A lot of the Polaras,Hamiltons and Bulova side view's were poor condition watches - literally the bottom of the barrel, with their cracked/chipped/replaced/motto-less crystals(I bought 5-6 driver's just for their modules, since I have some NOS cases). There seems to be a strong market preference for unique,angular,retro designs and finishes, as these give a good "dating" affect to an LED watch - people instantly realize you are wearing a cool, classic watch. 8) To a discerning eye, an octoganal Baylor may be more interesting than a bulbous Pulsar... 70's art deco. :D
A final different thought on the digital watch market: they were sold primarily in the wealthy,industrial nations, but more world markets are opening up everyday, and world populations are still rising. I hope to see a more diverse collector base in the future, beyond the North Americas and Europe.

[Majestyk]

By the way, my post was not intended to single out led-land, he was just an example since he's one of the earliest LED Ebay sellers around. Just thought I'd make that clear. :)

[retroleds]

I too didn't intend to single out anyone's merchandise or purchases...just seems the really good stuff is drying up. I've opinioned before we must be losing some percentage of the all-important modules just to poor handling,leaking batteries,etc., which leads me to think the current times are the final wave of vintage LED watches to surface,many ugly or very plain, which should be gutted of their modules' to keep the REAL collectibles running longer. Survival of the Fittest!
Those "plain jane" watches will only water down the market for so long, before they all have been stripped, their bodies,hopefully discarded. One seller has repeatedly tried to sell a lot of 50 (plain SS)NOS cases on ebay,recently for about $.50 each - apparently anyone who HAS 50 modules, understands it is easier to put a module in,and ultimately sell for $150 a Polara they got for $70, then to put the same module into a case that will only result in a $50 sale, at best.
Just my thoughts...climbing down off the soapbox....

[Planet-LED]

Where do people like Led-land, not to single him out, he's just an example, continue to find an almost endless supply of these mint condition watches?

[Majestyk]

Classifieds/Flea Markets/Antique Shops/Ebay, etc.

[ledwatch]

nuff said!

[Seer Taak]

I know it's a rare model but someone just made some pretty bigg money on this Longines LED

[Majestyk]

Well I guess my reply to LEDWATCH doesn't make sense now.

So nuff said part 2. :)

[ibuyufly09]

[quote="MJ"]LEDWATCH makes it sound easy. I've been buying Pulsars for years and have never been able to make much or any profit on them. By the time you get a working module and nice case, there is very little profit left; since they are expensive in themselves. So I tried buying "AS-IS" watches. Man, the money I've lost on those. LED-LAND has a special knack for Pulsar.

MJ[/quote] You are correct its a knack and it takes alot of money which can make some people a bit jealous

[collector]

WOW - as a only "casual collector" I really didn't realize how tough it was to really make a buck in the "LED Watch Business".

[retroleds]

New ebay listings of vintage LED's is at a four month low. Usually there are 18-20 vintage LEDs listed/day(6000-7000/yr.) There ain't nothin but crap or caviar out there right now. Wish I had bid on that rare Longines a little harder...got sidetracked, never came back to it(ditto on that Wells 100...THAT would have got museum treatment from me). Still praying that the tumble in demand for new anologue & digital watches will cause the price of our beloved collectable "jewelry" LEDs to appreciate. Supply sure seems to be decreasing.